NMMA: Continuing to Monitor Consumer Confidence as it Falls to Lowest Since April, Spending Outlook Cautious
The NMMA is continuing to closely monitor U.S. consumer confidence—an indicator for the recreational boating economy—as it declined again in September, according to the latest report from The Conference Board, released this week. The Consumer Confidence Index® dropped 3.6 points to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August and marking its lowest level since April. The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers’ views on current labor and business conditions, fell sharply by 7.0 points to 125.4, the steepest monthly decline this year. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index slipped 1.3 points to 73.4, remaining well below the 80-point threshold that has historically signaled heightened recession risk.
Consumers reported weaker assessments of current business conditions and expressed increased concern about job availability, which fell to a multi-year low. Pessimism about future job prospects and business conditions also grew. In write-in responses, consumers pointed to rising prices and employment concerns as key issues. Mentions of tariffs declined compared to earlier in the year, though they remain elevated.
Household views of both current and future financial situations deteriorated in September, with current views experiencing their largest decline since 2022. Recession fears also climbed to their highest level since May.
Purchasing plans showed mixed results. Intentions to buy cars, both new and used, fell in September, while purchase plans for homes rose to a four-month high. Intentions around big-ticket items remained largely unchanged from August.
The declines in both present and future confidence indexes underscore headwinds for the recreational boating industry. As consumers grow more uncertain about their economic prospects, they are likely to delay or reconsider large discretionary purchases. Heightened expectations of recession and concerns about future employment suggest a cautious spending environment, particularly for products that require long-term financing.
The drop in consumer confidence comes as the federal government entered a shutdown on Oct. 1. Past shutdowns have shown that prolonged uncertainty weakens consumer confidence. The Labor Department indicated it will not release scheduled monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which could rattle U.S. markets. For discretionary markets like boats and outdoor recreation equipment, that can translate into delayed purchases and softer demand.
NMMA continues to monitor consumer sentiment and its implications for marine businesses. Members are encouraged to utilize resources such as the Monthly Industry Data Summary and quarterly Marine Leadership Barometer to guide decision-making and navigate evolving market dynamics.
For more economic updates and data-driven insights, visit nmma.org/statistics or contact the NMMA Business Intelligence team at [email protected].