With Iowa in the Rear View, New Hampshire Steps to the Plate
Last week, the 2016 presidential season officially kicked off with voters in Iowa caucusing on a snowy Monday night with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Ted Cruz edging out victories in the Hawkeye state. Since Iowa is not a winner-take-all state, the night’s outcome did little to clear up the tight races—Clinton who defeated Senator Bernie Sanders by the narrowest of margins holds a two delegate lead, while Cruz, who fended off businessman Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio, holds only a one delegate advantage. Since both party’s require more than one thousand delegates to win the nomination, it’s safe to say that both races are far from over.
Iowa did prove beneficial in weeding the field— Senator Rand Paul, former Governors Martin O’Malley and Mike Huckabee, and former Senator Rick Santorum all suspended their campaigns after failing to gain traction. As we head into today’s New Hampshire primary, the race is down to nine Republicans, with just Sanders and Clinton remaining on the Democrat side. There are 20 delegates up for grabs on the GOP side in New Hampshire, and 24 for the Democrats. According to poll aggregator Nate Silver, Sanders is all-but-assured victory (99 percent favorite), while Trump has a 70 percent chance of winning, with Rubio now battling a host of Republicans for the second spot after Saturday’s poor debate performance put a dent in “Marcomentum.”
We know that neither Sanders nor Clinton will drop out of the race anytime soon, but we expect that come Wednesday morning several of the Republican challengers could suspend their campaigns—Governors Chris Christie and John Kasich, and former Governor Jeb Bush each need to make a major showing tomorrow night to show that they have staying power, while retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina are teetering on the edge of irrelevancy. After tomorrow’s vote, the Republicans head south for the South Carolina Primary on Feb. 20, while Clinton and Sanders head west for the Nevada Caucus also on Saturday. To stay up to date on key election news visit us at http://www.boatpac.org/election-center2016/.